Chips · cycle

8 of 8 chip-cycle indicators improve on three months earlier

US chip output was +19.9% on a year in September 2026. The board reads ten monthly series from the Federal Reserve, the Labor and Census bureaus and UN Comtrade, and counts how many are improving.

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Diffusion since 2005

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Cite

This page

Jesse Hawkins, “The chip cycle board: 8 of 8 chip-cycle indicators improve on three months earlier”, jesseahawkins.com, data retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://jesseahawkins.com/chips/cycle/. Data: Federal Reserve, BLS and Census Bureau series via FRED, public domain; Census trade API, public domain; UN Comtrade.

BibTeX

@misc{hawkins2026chipscycle,
  author = {Hawkins, Jesse},
  title = {{The chip cycle board: 8 of 8 chip-cycle indicators improve on three months earlier}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://jesseahawkins.com/chips/cycle/}},
  note = {Data: Federal Reserve, BLS and Census Bureau series via FRED, public domain; Census trade API, public domain; UN Comtrade, retrieved 2026-10-19}
}

IPG3344S · Federal Reserve Board

Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: “Industrial production: semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344), index 2017 = 100, seasonally adjusted”, series IPG3344S, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG3344S.

CAPUTLG3344S · Federal Reserve Board

Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: “Capacity utilization: semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344), percent, seasonally adjusted”, series CAPUTLG3344S, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAPUTLG3344S.

PCU33443344 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index: “Producer price index: semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing, index December 1984 = 100, not seasonally adjusted”, series PCU33443344, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU33443344.

CES3133440001 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics: “All employees: semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing, thousands, seasonally adjusted”, series CES3133440001, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3133440001.

A34SNO · U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): “New orders: computers and electronic products, millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted”, series A34SNO, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A34SNO.

A34SIS · U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): “Inventories to shipments ratio: computers and electronic products, seasonally adjusted”, series A34SIS, via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A34SIS.

CSV Post on X

Most indicators have improved for 9 months running

diffusion index · a month counts when six or more series have a reading · Each series is compared with the same month a year before. A correlation over past cycles is not a forecast.

Line: the three-month mean. Dot: the newest month. Above the 50% rule, most measures improve.

9 of 10 series are improving in their newest month

improving: the change on a year is better than three months before · z: against every month since 2005

Each chip-cycle series: newest month, change on a year, three months before, direction and z-score
Series	Newest	On a year	3 months before	Direction	z
US chip outputFRED IPG3344S	Sep 2026	+19.9%	+15.4%	improving	+0.5
US chip capacity in useFRED CAPUTLG3344S	Sep 2026	+2.79 points	−1.54 points	improving	+0.4
US chip producer pricesFRED PCU33443344	Sep 2026	+26.0%	+27.9%	weakening	+5.2
US chip jobsFRED CES3133440001	Sep 2026	0.0%	−3.2%	improving	+0.2
US electronics new ordersFRED A34SNO	Aug 2026	+16.6%	+14.2%	improving	+2.2
US electronics inventory ratioFRED A34SIS · lower is better	Aug 2026	−0.12 points	−0.11 points	improving	−1.6
US processor imports from Taiwan, Korea and MexicoCensus HS 854231	Aug 2026	+60.9%	+53.6%	improving	+0.3
US memory imports from Taiwan, Korea and MexicoCensus HS 854232	Aug 2026	+497.4%	+472.0%	improving	+3.5
South Korea memory exportsUN Comtrade HS 854232	Dec 2025	+69.8%	+34.9%	improving	+1.4
South Korea memory, dollars a kilogramUN Comtrade HS 854232	Dec 2025	+35.0%	+6.2%	improving	+0.6

US processor imports from Taiwan, Korea and Mexico lead chip output by 6 months

correlation of each series' change on a year with US chip output's, the series moved 0 to 12 months earlier

Each series' best lead against US chip output, its correlation and the months it covers
Series	Best fit	Correlation	Months
US chip capacity in use	same month	0.64	261
US processor imports from Taiwan, Korea and Mexico	6 months ahead	0.52	87
US electronics inventory ratio	1 month ahead	0.44	261
South Korea memory, dollars a kilogram	7 months ahead	0.40	94
US memory imports from Taiwan, Korea and Mexico	5 months ahead	0.37	88
South Korea memory exports	8 months ahead	0.35	96
US electronics new orders	same month	0.28	260
US chip producer prices	12 months ahead	0.13	261
US chip jobs	same month	0.04	261

US imports count three countries only: Taiwan, South Korea and Mexico, from 2018. South Korea’s exports come from UN Comtrade, which publishes months later than the US agencies.

Sources

cycle.csv Every dataset → Status → Glossary →

Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Industrial production: semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344), index 2017 = 100, seasonally adjusted (IPG3344S), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Capacity utilization: semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344), percent, seasonally adjusted (CAPUTLG3344S), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index: Producer price index: semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing, index December 1984 = 100, not seasonally adjusted (PCU33443344), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics: All employees: semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing, thousands, seasonally adjusted (CES3133440001), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): New orders: computers and electronic products, millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (A34SNO), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): Inventories to shipments ratio: computers and electronic products, seasonally adjusted (A34SIS), via FRED, retrieved 19 Oct 2026. Public domain.
U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Census Bureau, international trade API (imports by HS code), HS 854231 and 854232, retrieved 10 Oct 2026. Public domain.
UN Comtrade, monthly exports of HS 854232 by South Korea, retrieved 19 Oct 2026.