Research
Research
Research briefs on the AI buildout, its power bills, jobs and balance sheets, and on US controls on recovered critical minerals. Every figure links to its source, and every page gives the date of its facts.
Briefs
12 briefs 01 pairs trading A Pepsi and Coca-Cola pairs trade stops working after 2022 A September study froze a PEP/KO pairs rule on 2013 to 2022 data and found it lost money after. Rebuilt from the text alone, the loss repeats to within $110. 02 prediction markets Binance's closing-second spike behind Polymarket's Bitcoin bets halves A June 2026 study tied a spike in Binance trading at each five-minute close to Polymarket bets. The core result reproduces, and the spike halved after April. 03 prediction markets Kalshi's weather markets beat the public forecast in six of seven cities A September study found Kalshi's temperature markets beat the best public forecast. Rebuilt from public data, the market wins in six of seven cities. 04 technical trading rules Simple trading rules lose their edge on the Dow after 1986 A 1992 study found that moving-average and range-break rules beat the Dow. Re-run with the search counted, the edge holds to 1986 and fades after it. 05 coding agents Unattended coding sessions ship 72 slices in 17 days Eighty scheduled agent sessions rebuilt three desktop apps with nobody watching. Each pushed one tested slice. Four pushes broke the build, each fixed in two minutes. 06 AI infrastructure credit The neocloud credit cycle: what broke on October 14, 2026 CoreWeave's bonds hit 15% before its stock fell 15%. Rates, GPU debt, lab counterparties and a crowded trade from Seoul to Nasdaq now set the price of the AI buildout. 07 AI and US jobs AI cuts hiring of young workers more than it causes layoffs AI-cited layoffs are small next to normal US job churn, and the clearer signal is that firms in AI-exposed work are hiring fewer young people. 08 AI infrastructure finance Big Tech now borrows to pay for the AI buildout In 2026 Big Tech stopped paying for AI data centers out of cash flow and began to finance them like infrastructure, which moves the risk of weak demand to lenders. 09 data centers and power bills The data centers on your power bill mostly haven't been built yet In PJM, forecast data centers drive the capacity-price shock; elsewhere, bills rise for other reasons. Nobody has settled who pays for load that may never arrive. 10 tungsten scrap 8113.00.00: the tungsten hard scrap code the export order does not name Two US tungsten producers told Commerce that hard scrap moves under 8113.00.00. The August 2026 order names 8101.97 instead. Trade figures for both codes are below. 11 allocation order The tungsten scrap order’s exceptions, and its November 4 deadline What the 2026-08-27 DPAS allocation order requires, how BIS takes requests for exceptions, and when comments on docket BIS-2026-0364 close, quoted from the rule. 12 export controls Who asked for the black mass and tungsten scrap export restrictions Of 224 firms that wrote to Commerce in May 2025, two asked for something close to the August 2026 export restrictions. The brief sets 30 requests beside the order.
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