Research briefs by Jesse Hawkins on the AI buildout and on US controls on recovered critical minerals, from the public record.https://jesseahawkins.com/en-ushttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/a-pepsi-coca-cola-pairs-trade-that-worked-to-2022-loses-money-after-it/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/a-pepsi-coca-cola-pairs-trade-that-worked-to-2022-loses-money-after-it/A September study froze a PEP/KO pairs rule on 2013 to 2022 data and found it lost money after. Rebuilt from the text alone, the loss repeats to within $110.Tue, 03 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/binance-closing-spike-behind-polymarket-bitcoin-bets-halves/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/binance-closing-spike-behind-polymarket-bitcoin-bets-halves/A June 2026 study tied a spike in Binance trading at each five-minute close to Polymarket bets. The core result reproduces, and the spike halved after April.Sat, 31 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/kalshi-weather-markets-beat-the-public-forecast-in-six-of-seven-cities/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/kalshi-weather-markets-beat-the-public-forecast-in-six-of-seven-cities/A September study found Kalshi's temperature markets beat the best public forecast. Rebuilt from public data, the market wins in six of seven cities.Sat, 31 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/simple-trading-rules-lose-their-edge-after-1986/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/simple-trading-rules-lose-their-edge-after-1986/A 1992 study found that moving-average and range-break rules beat the Dow. Re-run with the search counted, the edge holds to 1986 and fades after it.Sat, 31 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/unattended-coding-sessions-ship-72-slices-in-17-days/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/unattended-coding-sessions-ship-72-slices-in-17-days/Eighty scheduled agent sessions rebuilt three desktop apps with nobody watching. Each pushed one tested slice. Four pushes broke the build, each fixed in two minutes.Sat, 31 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/neocloud-credit-cycle-october-2026/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/neocloud-credit-cycle-october-2026/CoreWeave's bonds hit 15% before its stock fell 15%. Rates, GPU debt, lab counterparties and a crowded trade from Seoul to Nasdaq now set the price of the AI buildout.Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/data-centers-and-your-power-bill/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/data-centers-and-your-power-bill/In PJM, forecast data centers drive the capacity-price shock; elsewhere, bills rise for other reasons. Nobody has settled who pays for load that may never arrive.Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/the-ai-buildout-has-a-balance-sheet-now/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/the-ai-buildout-has-a-balance-sheet-now/In 2026 Big Tech stopped paying for AI data centers out of cash flow and began to finance them like infrastructure, which moves the risk of weak demand to lenders.Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/the-ai-jobs-story-is-a-hiring-story/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/the-ai-jobs-story-is-a-hiring-story/AI-cited layoffs are small next to normal US job churn, and the clearer signal is that firms in AI-exposed work are hiring fewer young people.Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/dpas-allocation-order-exception-route-comment-deadline/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/dpas-allocation-order-exception-route-comment-deadline/What the 2026-08-27 DPAS allocation order requires, how BIS takes requests for exceptions, and when comments on docket BIS-2026-0364 close, quoted from the rule.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/hts-8113-tungsten-hard-scrap-allocation-order/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/hts-8113-tungsten-hard-scrap-allocation-order/Two US tungsten producers told Commerce that hard scrap moves under 8113.00.00. The August 2026 order names 8101.97 instead. Trade figures for both codes are below.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://jesseahawkins.com/research/who-asked-for-the-black-mass-and-tungsten-scrap-export-rule/https://jesseahawkins.com/research/who-asked-for-the-black-mass-and-tungsten-scrap-export-rule/Of 224 firms that wrote to Commerce in May 2025, two asked for something close to the August 2026 export restrictions. The brief sets 30 requests beside the order.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT